Markets navigated a rather complex set of circumstances in the fourth quarter of 2025. Momentum remained robust through September fueled by healthy corporate earnings, strong consumer spending, and continued business investment. However, as the quarter unfolded, recession fears, cracks in the AI growth story, and a historic 43-day federal government shutdown stalled this momentum and denied investors a “Santa Claus” rally for a second year in a row.

From the Fed’s rate cuts to Washington’s latest standoff, investors faced no shortage of headlines this quarter — yet markets continued to advance. Explore what’s fueling the rally, why inflation remains tricky, and how we’re preparing for the months ahead.

Entering the second quarter, market volatility has increased dramatically as the Trump administration’s agenda has become more evident. The sheer scope of the actions of DOGE and President Trump’s multi-faceted tariff policy has seemingly caught the investment community by surprise.

The fourth quarter of 2024 proved to be a volatile one, yet U.S. equities ended the period in positive territory.

The markets entered 2024 with strong momentum on the heels of a 4th quarter rally in global stock and bond markets.